Why next year will be make or break for traditional media

I’ve never copied anything into my blog verbatim so I really want to reference the source on this one……so for the absence of doubt what follows is taken entirely from The Business, and was authored by David Crow (Not me). It is a great piece, and I think you should read it.

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It is hard to overstate the changes that took place in the media in 2007. In Europe, this was the first ever year that 16-24 year olds – the consumers behind today’s technological revolution – accessed the internet more frequently than they watched TV. Now, nearly eight years into the millennium, even the heretics who dismissed the internet as a flash in the pan are realising just how wrong they were.

While 2008 will be a year of flux, some things are unlikely to change. Circulation figures for daily paid-for newspapers will continue to dip, with the odd exception; the best editors will be the ones who adopt a two pronged approach of managing the decline in print sales – instead of trying to avert it – while investing more and more resources in their digital operations.

The Daily Mail – one of the few papers to post a year-on-year increase in November’s ABC figures – will continue to be the envy of all on Fleet Street. Last month’s assurance by editor Paul Dacre, 60 next year, that he has no plans to step down came as a relief to shareholders; it is hard to imagine the paper reading the mood of modern Britain so expertly without him. In 2008, the title will build on its newfound digital success after it hit the ground running earlier this year.

Sunday titles will continue to fare better than their daily counterparts in 2008. The Observer – which reported a 1.41% year-on-year increase in November’s ABCs – is testament to the fact that the peculiar British relationship with Sunday newspapers will remain strong. All eyes will be on how its integration with The Guardian goes, however.

Daily freesheets will be one of the few print products to see increasing revenues in 2008. Metro, owned by Associated Newspapers, is likely to be the star of the sector; its combined regional distribution – currently at around 1.4m – will continue to rise and, at some point in 2008, overtake the Daily Mirror’s circulation.

The latter, along with nearly every other daily and Sunday red top – with the inexplicable exception of the Daily Star titles – will watch The Sun continue to demonstrate that it is possible to build a successful red top brand online and in print. Hopes that the Mirror will be able to follow suit are fading.

Across the pond, staff at the Wall Street Journal will realise that Rupert Murdoch’s plans to turn the title into a global power brand can only benefit the newspaper. Media coverage of the presidential election – like Australia’s recent vote – will be increasingly defined by web giant Google, which will come into direct competition with newspapers and broadcasters by reporting the contest first hand.

DAB digital radio will continue its march to become Britain’s preferred radio platform. By the end of 2008, 30% of households will own a DAB radio, with sales rising by 26% to 2.6m units worth £200m. 4 Digital – the consortium behind the 10 new digital radio stations that will launch next year – is hoping to open up digital radio in the way Channel 4 boosted the fortunes of digital Freeview TV.

The new stations will provide some much needed competition to the BBC. E4 radio, which will focus on the youth market, will go head to head with Radio 1 while Channel 4 Radio – a contemporary speech station with what the consortium call “public service values” will provide an alternative to BBC Radio 4. Earlier this month 4Digital poached the controller of BBC Radio 5 Live, suggesting it is serious about taking on the Beeb. BBC radio stations account for 54% of all radio listening and a massive 86% of speech-based listening; 2008 will be the year that this starts to change.

For established broadcasters, next year will be one of unlikely alliances, formed in an attempt to see off the growing threat from new competitors. The BBC, ITV and Channel 4 will launch a joint on-demand service, enabling customers to download content from all three broadcasters on one platform. The trio hope that the on-demand service – codenamed Kangaroo – will provide an alternative to Sky+ and Virgin On Demand.

In America, Murdoch’s NewsCorp and NBC Universal will officially launch their joint internet TV effort, Hulu, a website hosting popular shows such as Saturday Night Live and Journeyman alongside user-generated clips. Google’s YouTube will continue to be the product to beat.

In 2007, social networking sites finally reached the tipping point, becoming truly mainstream for the first time. In 2008, they will be increasingly counted alongside TV, newspapers, magazines and radio as the fifth staple of the consumer’s media diet.

Facebook will continue to be the social network to beat, although top-dog status will bring new woes. Mark Zuckerberg, its founder and chief executive – once the poster-boy for the Facebook generation – is fast becoming a scapegoat for the increasing panic over social networking and privacy. Having bungled its attempts to reassure customers over their concerns, Facebook will have to get better at managing its success.

The firms that succeed in 2008 will be those that focus on the needs, desires and interests of their consumer in the contemporary marketplace – and discard their archaic, elitist prejudices born of a different era. For those still referred to as the “traditional” media, 2008 will be the make or break year.